Europe is experiencing a growing number of incidents caused by suspected sabotage actions. Russia is believed to be behind in many cases, an intelligence services warn that they are preparing for war
The democratic world, multilateral organizations ( like the UN and NATO) the post WWI global trade system and our human rights are are being attacked by a loosely organized cabal of digitally sophisticated autocracies including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, and the United States which are supported by the 1% of the world's population that own 43% of the world's assets. This cabal wants to divide the world into zones of power, eliminate the constraints of human rights, environmental and safety regulations and avoid taxes on global wealth.
Hybrid warfare is a relatively inexpensive form of offensive warfare, one that is difficult to trace since complex systems are fragile and has relatively little blow back on the aggressor's own population. Modern democracies are particularly vulnerable to this form of warfare because of the ubiquitous and relatively unfettered use of digital technologies in our societies, our commitments to human rights and elections and because we live in complex and interconnected global economies and world, where a break in any one point can cause failures in other systems.
Hybrid warfare is not just sabotage, but includes disinformation campaigns (by manipulating public opinion through fake news, propaganda and social media), economic coercion (leveraging trade dependencies, energy, communications infrastructure, currencies), cyber operations (data theft, digital disinformation, and critical attacks on critical infrastructure), and proxy actions to destabilize countries and regimes (electoral interference, financing "independent" think tanks, assassinations, and covert police actions against overseas activists and critics and, piracy to undermine global trade).
The dangers of hybrid warfare are real, especially because the autocracies in this cabal do not feel bound by traditional rules of war, human rights, or even the rule of law. These autocracies are relatively indifferent to their domestic populations, which they keep in line through repression and fear. But more importantly, hybrid warfare has been successful in converting democracies into autocracies and changing the balance of power. Hybrid warfare conducted by China, Russia and the global techbros (whose companies have more wealth than many countries) toppled the United States. The United States is now the enemy.
Now, with the help of Russia, China and other autocracies, the United States is deploying hybrid warfare to undermine democracies in the EU, Canada, Mexico and Panama as well as the UN and NATO. Unfortunately, the close integration of all these democracies and multilateral organizations with the US has made it difficult to acknowledge that the United States is now the enemy. It has defected and is an autocracy fighting against the rule of law. Our wishes and hopes tto the contrary make us even more vulnerable to hybrid warfare.
Democracies need to harden their hearts and resolve and cut off the economic and defence links with the United States . They need to take coordinated action to limit disinformation perhaps by holding media operations and digital platforms accountable and liable for disinformation communicated on their services. Democracies may need to reclaim control of critical infrastructure to build in redundancy (which may not be economically palatable to profit driven private enterprises) and strengthen economic ties among democracies and freeze out businesses aligned with autocratic regimes. ( I understand that this is a political litmus test for businesses; but I don't think that businesses or corporations should be able to contribute to political campaigns or have political free speech rights. Human rights belong to individuals.)
Democracies need to double down work together to truly address those global problems like climate change and inequality because these global issues give autocracies the fodder for disinformation and unrest. This may mean a global corporate minimum tax, a portion of which should be used exclusively by multilateral organizations addressing global problems. Finally, on the economic front, democracies need to coordinate together to stem global corruption and crime which undermine democracies and human rights. We need to enforce transparency of supply chains to ensure that global environmental laws, human rights and governance standards are adhered to and deficiencies corrected.
Finally, we need to undertake our own campaigns of hybrid economic and information warfare against the autocratic cabal by coordinated economic sanctions to cut off the flow of funds or weapons that might be used against us. We should encourage the brain and resource drain out of autocracies because the world cannot afford to lose knowledge. We need to ensure that history is not forgotten and that we recover what may have been lost. We should welcome those businesses , NGOs and institutions who wish to flee from the autocracies and who agree to abide by our laws and values, because it is better to build on existing expertise and knowledge. We also need to ensure that we encourage discussion, acknowledge mistakes and undertake constant course correction among those residing in our countries and among countries. Democracies and multilateralism are imperfect, messy and difficult to keep...but the alternatives are far worse. So this is a call to arms to fight and to contribute to the discussion.
The democratic world, multilateral organizations ( like the UN and NATO) the post WWI global trade system and our human rights are are being attacked by a loosely organized cabal of digitally sophisticated autocracies including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, and the United States which are supported by the 1% of the world's population that own 43% of the world's assets. This cabal wants to divide the world into zones of power, eliminate the constraints of human rights, environmental and safety regulations and avoid taxes on global wealth.
Hybrid warfare is a relatively inexpensive form of offensive warfare, one that is difficult to trace since complex systems are fragile and has relatively little blow back on the aggressor's own population. Modern democracies are particularly vulnerable to this form of warfare because of the ubiquitous and relatively unfettered use of digital technologies in our societies, our commitments to human rights and elections and because we live in complex and interconnected global economies and world, where a break in any one point can cause failures in other systems.
Hybrid warfare is not just sabotage, but includes disinformation campaigns (by manipulating public opinion through fake news, propaganda and social media), economic coercion (leveraging trade dependencies, energy, communications infrastructure, currencies), cyber operations (data theft, digital disinformation, and critical attacks on critical infrastructure), and proxy actions to destabilize countries and regimes (electoral interference, financing "independent" think tanks, assassinations, and covert police actions against overseas activists and critics and, piracy to undermine global trade).
The dangers of hybrid warfare are real, especially because the autocracies in this cabal do not feel bound by traditional rules of war, human rights, or even the rule of law. These autocracies are relatively indifferent to their domestic populations, which they keep in line through repression and fear. But more importantly, hybrid warfare has been successful in converting democracies into autocracies and changing the balance of power. Hybrid warfare conducted by China, Russia and the global techbros (whose companies have more wealth than many countries) toppled the United States. The United States is now the enemy.
Now, with the help of Russia, China and other autocracies, the United States is deploying hybrid warfare to undermine democracies in the EU, Canada, Mexico and Panama as well as the UN and NATO. Unfortunately, the close integration of all these democracies and multilateral organizations with the US has made it difficult to acknowledge that the United States is now the enemy. It has defected and is an autocracy fighting against the rule of law. Our wishes and hopes tto the contrary make us even more vulnerable to hybrid warfare.
Democracies need to harden their hearts and resolve and cut off the economic and defence links with the United States . They need to take coordinated action to limit disinformation perhaps by holding media operations and digital platforms accountable and liable for disinformation communicated on their services. Democracies may need to reclaim control of critical infrastructure to build in redundancy (which may not be economically palatable to profit driven private enterprises) and strengthen economic ties among democracies and freeze out businesses aligned with autocratic regimes. ( I understand that this is a political litmus test for businesses; but I don't think that businesses or corporations should be able to contribute to political campaigns or have political free speech rights. Human rights belong to individuals.)
Democracies need to double down work together to truly address those global problems like climate change and inequality because these global issues give autocracies the fodder for disinformation and unrest. This may mean a global corporate minimum tax, a portion of which should be used exclusively by multilateral organizations addressing global problems. Finally, on the economic front, democracies need to coordinate together to stem global corruption and crime which undermine democracies and human rights. We need to enforce transparency of supply chains to ensure that global environmental laws, human rights and governance standards are adhered to and deficiencies corrected.
Finally, we need to undertake our own campaigns of hybrid economic and information warfare against the autocratic cabal by coordinated economic sanctions to cut off the flow of funds or weapons that might be used against us. We should encourage the brain and resource drain out of autocracies because the world cannot afford to lose knowledge. We need to ensure that history is not forgotten and that we recover what may have been lost. We should welcome those businesses , NGOs and institutions who wish to flee from the autocracies and who agree to abide by our laws and values, because it is better to build on existing expertise and knowledge. We also need to ensure that we encourage discussion, acknowledge mistakes and undertake constant course correction among those residing in our countries and among countries. Democracies and multilateralism are imperfect, messy and difficult to keep...but the alternatives are far worse. So this is a call to arms to fight and to contribute to the discussion.