After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, outsiders have been on the fence regarding the nature and real intentions of the new rulers. Right from day one, they seemingly went out of their way to signal friendly and open ways as a contrast to the barbaric dictatorship they replaced.
The leader Ahmed al-Sharaa was formerly known by his battle name Abu Mohammad al-Julani. The HTS group emerged from the Nusra Front, an offshoot of the terrorist network al-Qaida. Sharaa claimed that he had distanced himself from al-Qaida and the terrorist ISIS organization or Islamic State. However, HTS is still listed as a terrorist organization by UN as well as by the USA. To this day, there are still reports that the HTS leadership maintains contact with al-Qaida.
Now that the first visitors are coming to the country, it starts to become more clear what awaits us and the much tried population of Syria.
Spiegel: The new, self-proclaimed temporary rulers are almost drowning in the flood of sudden interest in Ahmed al-Sharaa, known until a week ago by his battle name Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and his Islamist militia Haiat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS. The UN special envoy, diplomats from the EU, Great Britain, Germany, France and the USA want to speak to those responsible for the HTS, which has so far been classified as a terrorist organization.
In their statements, al-Sharaa and his followers send reassuring messages to the World, trying to calm down the fears of a new Islamist dictatorship, and resolutely promise the opposite - respect for minorities, peace with neighbors, good governance. If al-Sharaa has a PR consultant, it is a very good one. He always seems to say the right thing. But the questions remain as to what will happen, since HTS was officially allied with al-Qaeda for years. Will women and minorities have rights, and which rights? What visions of a new state of Syria do they have? A caliphate? An autocracy without civil rights? A real democracy with free and fair elections?
al-Sharaa has said religious minorities will have rights to peaceful co-existence. Christians have returned to their homes in the North in peace, but there have been incidents in Aleppo with burning a Christmas tree and protesters in the street against Christians. al-Sharaa also said that women have full rights and he has recently appointed three women ministers of this new interim government.
The foreign minister of Ukraine was one of the first to visit Damascus, followed now by European foreign ministers, the German and the French, also acting as EU envoys.
From the press release by the German foreign service: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock prior to her departure for Damascus -
My visit today – together with my French counterpart and on behalf of the EU – sends a clear message to the people of Syria. A political reset between Europe and Syria, between Germany and Syria, is possible. It is with this outstretched hand, but also with clear expectations of the new rulers, that we are travelling to Damascus today.
This reset can only happen if the new Syrian society gives everyone in Syria, women and men, regardless of the ethnic or religious group they belong to, a place in the political process, if it guarantees them rights and offers them protection. If precisely these rights are safeguarded in the transition process that now lies ahead, rather than potentially undermined by excessively long waits for elections or by steps to Islamise the justice or education system. If the past is reckoned with, justice is done and reprisals against entire groups are refrained from. If extremism and radical groups have no place. That must be our common goal. And it is also very much in our own interest – security in Europe and in Germany is closely intertwined with this goal.
We know where HTS comes from ideologically, what they have done in the past. But we also see and hear the desire for moderation and for mutual understanding with other important players. The opening of initial talks with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces is an important step in this direction.
We will continue to judge HTS by their actions. Scepticism notwithstanding, we cannot now pass up the opportunity to support the people of Syria at this important crossroads.
The rection in Damascus was less convincing as the foreign ministers were received at the steps of the government halls. al-Sharaa extended his hand to greet the French foreign minister but refused to shake hands with the German. Instead, he slapped his upper left chest and Annalena Baerbock held her hands together in front of herself, nodding and grinning nervously at the same time. Still from the video below. Evidently, that is a sign of religious fervor on his side, but as such not reassuring that women have equal rights in his model society.
Still from video on X /Nexta.tv
No doubt this is just an impasse that does not mean anything for the relations between Germany and the new Syria. The facts are that Germany will keep a close eye on the real happenings on the ground in Syria, as Baerbock says in the above press release.
Signs of further Islamist presence
Now, it just happens that the same day, yesterday, the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet brings a reportage from their correspondent on the ground in Syria:
During the SvD's photo shoot, a symbol is snatched from a rebel soldier's vest.
The two rebel soldiers patrolling along Aleppo's vegetable market are in a good mood. They laugh and when they see the SvD's envoy they want to have a portrait taken.
But in the middle of the photo shoot, one of the soldiers becomes noticeably embarrassed. Suddenly he snatches a flag emblem from his surprised comrade's chest. SvD photographer Linus Sundahl-Djerf captures it on camera – and with it the grand politics that symbols and their significance have become in the new Syria are made clear.
The flag that is snatched away has a black background with a peculiar white, calligraphic text, where the Muslim creed is evident. The symbol has become known as the "jihadist flag" as it is often used by terrorist groups, especially al-Qaeda.
The photo sequence can be found on the web site. According to the newspaper, experts see room for ISIS to capitalize on the power vacuum that may now emerge. Even with Russian assistance, the terrorist sect has still not been completely wiped out in Syria or other places in the Middle East. If a new internal Syrian conflict breaks out when possibly both Russia and USA, given new policy under Trump, leave the country, a new conflict could flare up again between the new rulers and the Kurdish groups, leaving more space for ISIS to act. In or close to the Kurdish controlled areas in the North East of Syria, there are prison camps where thousands of IS supporters are held. In case the situation evolves to a new civil war, the prisoners could easily be freed by comrades already operating in the area.