Russians or Climate Change? Rail Line Cut
The important arctic rail line from Kiruna to Norway has been damaged twice this year. It transports iron ore from the mines in Northern Sweden to Narvik in Norway for further transport by ship.
The Swedish mining and mineral group LKAB is reducing production by around one million tons this year. Two train derailments on Malmbanan railway last winter caused 76 days of complete stop to traffic, and it is hard to catch up. The income loss is around 700 million dollars. Further repairs to the tracks are needed, which leads to reduced capacity.
Malmbanan railway in Kiruna. Foto: LKAB
An iron ore train derailed on the last stretch before the Norwegian border, causing damage to 15 kilometers of track. This happened on 17 December 2023 and the repairs took 76 days total, involving replacing 25,000 sleepers and rail and electrical supply all along this stretch. Actually, the track was initially closed for inspection by authorities, before the work could begin. So far, the root cause is unknown or at least not communicated. This incident lasting more than two months caused losses of hundreds of millions of dollars, leading the mining company LKAB to announce a significant reduction of turnover for 2024.
When the ore trains began to run again, another derailing happened on 25 February 2024, at the same location. This time it was less damage, because it was an empty return train. It still took some days to repair the new damages, and new investigations did still not give an answer to what happened and what was the reason.
Analysts have concentrated on the two most-suspected reasons, which are
Damage to the track or foundations because of more wear by an increased number of ‘zero degree’ cycles. Zero centigrade is the freezing point; when passing in either direction, freezing or thawing, the track and the foundations are repeatedly expanding and contracting, leading to cracks and movement of the foundation as well as the track itself. This is a well-documented consequence of higher temperatures in the Arctic, that normally would just freeze once a year and then thaw once in spring. Or not thaw at all, depending on how far north and what elevation. All requiring more inspection and maintenance. So the reason could be lack of maintenance for the changing conditions due to global warming.
Sabotage to the track or wagons that triggers derailment. So far, there has been no information given that there has been any outside manipulation of materiel, so we can not know. However, it is not unlikely that someone, possibly foreign powers might want to disrupt access to iron ore for the defense industry. “We have previously described an increased Russian propensity for risk and said that it could mean, for example, Russian attempts at sabotage, says Gabriel Wernstedt at the security police's press service.” He goes on to say that there is no reason to claim there are other reasons for the incidents than normal railway operations. (Dagens Arbete, Swedish newspaper) European intelligence services are warning that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage in their countries in a concerted effort to destabilize the continent, including covert bombings, arson and attacks on infrastructure, the UK newspaper the Financial Times (FT) has claimed. (The Local se)
Iron from the Swedish mines at Kiruna is of excellent weapons quality and is used in many countries. Germany was dependent on this steel for their armament production under WWII and was very keen to protect access to it. It is an economically very important mining activity in Northern Sweden, and the temporary reduction in production is problematic. Especially since another very important employer in North Sweden is currently also in trouble, the Northvolt car batteries producer in Skellefteå. See the post on battery production:
The Kiruna mine is the largest underground iron ore mine in the world and has been in production since 1898. The ground right under the city of 20,000 inhabitants is now so undermined by subsidence that it was decided in 2004 to move central parts to a new location 2-3 km further away. This process has begun, but the mine is unaffected and continues production, except for the problem with the railway. The railway needs expansion to a double track line, which is also in the planning. (Architects’ plans)
In January 2023, the LKAB mining company also announced that they have found a large deposit of rare earth metals in the Kiruna area. This is another important raw material for the electrical power transition, cars and wind turbines and the like, and strategic for competition with China, that have most of the known deposits. It is not far from, but independent from the iron ore mine, so hopefully it will not impact on the town, including the new one. The indigenous population, the nomadic Sámi reindeer-herders, have already protested against further infringement on their lands.