Rush to Fix Ukraine, Success Unlikely

The peace game is on, and Putin is the better at hiding his hand.

Many world leaders are right now busy trying to put their mark on some hopeful ending of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Like, it must be done before year’s end. We can assume it’s spurred on by president-elect Trump’s repeated statements during his campaign, that he would be able to stop the war immediately. Unlike some of his other ‘day one’ claims, he actually has announced parts of relatively specific plans for how to achieve that. Apart from talking to Putin, that is, who last time not even acknowledged that Trump called him, creating an awkward situation. It is clear that the solution will be dependent on some land concessions, that Crimea is probably lost for Ukraine, and that Ukraine cannot become member of NATO for decades, and there will be pressure on EU not to offer Ukraine membership, either.

Scholz talked to Trump

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke on the phone for about 20 minutes with future US President Trump while participating in the European Council yesterday (see below). According to information from the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND), Scholz left the room with the other European heads of state and government to speak to Trump alone. Meanwhile, the other EU leaders discussed future migration policy.

The focus of the phone call was the security policy challenges in Europe, government spokesman Hebestreit said. Trump and Scholz agreed that the Russian war against Ukraine had been going on for far too long and that it was important to get on the path to a fair, just and sustainable peace as soon as possible. Previously, the heads of state and government had spent hours discussing, first with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and then among themselves, how Europe can support Ukraine during a second term for Trump.

It was the chancellor's second conversation with Trump since the presidential elections. It is not exactly usual for a Chancellor to speak to the future president on the phone twice before his inauguration, but times are not really as usual, then.

Scholz apparently did not inform the other heads of state and government about the conversation with Trump when he was back with them for dinner. When asked by RND, Scholz said he had not informed them of the phone call "in the meeting now". Trump's second term in office was one of the important topics of the summit. The focus was on the question of how support for Ukraine would continue and whether cooperation on trade issues was possible. Scholz indicated in the press conference after the meeting that he wanted to follow up on that.

At the press conference, Scholz expressed confidence that EU and USA will continue to work for a fair peace for Ukraine. He wants Ukraine to be able to defend its sovereignty, and that the killing will end. Scholz expressed opposition to ideas about a peacekeeping force in Ukraine in the event of a possible ceasefire. He wants to wait discussing the specifics of a security architecture to protect Ukraine, in conflict with the idea that the Trump team has expressed, that Europe must have troops on the ground in Ukraine and a future buffer zone.

German troops in Ukraine is a particularly sensitive, even painful, aspect of the proposed solution, because of WWII history. Scholz is facing general elections in Germany in February, which makes it practically impossible for him to make concessions on this. His voters simply does not want to see German soldiers in Ukraine/Russia again. We have no direct confirmation, but it might be that Trump finds it interesting and useful to wave such a picture in the eyes of Scholz.

From left to right: Volodymyr ZELENSKYY (President of Ukraine), António COSTA (President of the European Council) Photo: European Union ©

EU Council discussed Ukraine

Zelensky was present at the EU Council meeting in Brussels, yesterday 19 December. It was incidentally the 50th anniversary of the Council meeting, that is the top political decision forum for the European Union and has as members all heads of states/governments of the member countries. They discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, EU in the world, resilience and preparedness, migration and foreign policy issues.

In the conclusions summary, the Council stated: More than 1000 days since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU leaders reiterated their condemnation of Russia, and reconfirmed their unwavering commitment to providing continued support to Ukraine and its people.

They reiterated their support for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace, based on the UN Charter and in line with Ukraine’s peace formula. They also emphasized that no initiative about Ukraine can be taken without Ukraine.

EU leaders reviewed progress on military support for Ukraine, and called for quicker and more efficient delivery of air defense systems, ammunition and missiles, and for training and equipment for Ukrainian brigades.

In addition, they emphasized the importance of increasing support for Ukraine’s defense industry and deepening its cooperation with the EU defense industry.

EU leaders welcomed the steadfast implementation of the Ukraine Facility, an EU instrument to provide predictable financial support to help Ukraine in its recovery, reconstruction and modernization. Total payments from the facility are expected to reach €12.5 billion for 2025.

The leaders also welcomed the rapid implementation of the loan that the EU and the other G7 partners committed to provide, amounting to €45 billion ($50 billion). Under this initiative, the EU plans to begin disbursements in January 2025, amounting to a total of €18.1 billion over the coming year.

EU leaders discussed how to strengthen Ukraine’s critical energy and civilian infrastructure for the winter and beyond.

In this context, they strongly condemned Russia’s intensified and deliberate campaign against infrastructure, called for material support to be increased, and commended EU member states for their electricity exports, while emphasizing the importance of increasing such exports.

EU leaders welcomed the adoption of the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, including measures against the ‘shadow fleet’. Efforts to further limit Russia’s ability to wage war must continue. The leaders also reiterated their call for the full and effective enforcement of sanctions, and for further measures to counter their circumvention, including through third countries.

Putin in his own world

During his annual TV citizens' question time yesterday 19 December, Vladimir Putin was not able to avoid all critical topics. But the 4-hour long session is an impressive spectacle, orchestrated in such a way that Putin can always draw a positive conclusion. If you believe what Putin says, things are going really well in Russia at the moment.

At a point, the American journalist Keir Simmons was allowed two questions. It was live TV and the transcript says:

Keir Simmons: Mr President, Keir Simmons, NBC News. Two questions in English, if you don’t mind. Sorry, Mr Peskov.

The first one is about President-elect Trump.

Mr President, you have failed to reach the objectives of your special military operation. Large numbers of Russians have died, including a general assassinated here in Moscow this week. And the leader of Syria, who you supported, has been overthrown.

Mr President, when you face President-elect Trump, you will be the weaker leader. How do you propose to compromise? What are you going to offer?

[Omitting the second question and answer, which is about an American journalist disappeared in Syria 12 years ago.]

Putin answering:

You asked what we can offer or what I can offer to newly elected President Trump when we meet.

First of all, I don’t know when we will meet because he has not said anything about it. I have not talked to him for more than four years. Of course, I’m ready to talk any time; I will be ready to meet with him if he wishes. You said that this conversation will take place with me in some kind of weakened state.

Esteemed Mr Simmons. Why did I say “esteemed”? Because, despite all the persecution of Russian media, we allow you to continue working in Russia and you can do so freely. It is good enough. You and the people who pay your salary in the United States really want to see Russia in a weakened state.

My opinion differs. I believe that Russia has become significantly stronger in the past two or three years. Why? Because we are becoming a truly sovereign country, and we barely depend on anybody. We are capable of firmly standing on our feet when it comes to the economy. I have already talked about economic growth rates.

We are strengthening our defence capability. The combat readiness of the Russian Armed Forces is the highest in the world today. I assure you it is the highest.

The same is true of our defence industry. We are increasing the production of everything our army and navy need now and will need in the future. We are doing so confidently and quickly, unlike our opponents.

I have already spoken about the successes of our armed forces, which are due in large measure to production growth in the defence industry of the Russian Federation. As I have said, we are doing this confidently and quite rationally.

It has been said that our forces are advancing along the front line. One explanation for this is the existence of the equipment I have mentioned. Yes, in fact all NATO countries are fighting against us.

We spoke about our inflation. And what is the situation over there? Take a 155 mm shell, which cost 2,000 euros two years ago and now costs four times more, 8,000 euros. If this trend persists, two percent of GDP spending on defence in NATO countries, which President-elect Donald Trump always insisted on, will not suffice. Even three percent will not be enough. The training and combat standards and the morale of the Russian armed forces are higher than those of any other army in the world.

That is why I believe that Russia has largely achieved the state we wanted to achieve. It has grown stronger and become a truly sovereign state, and we will make decisions without looking at other people’s opinions, only with our national interests in mind.

BBC and other outlets are reporting that Putin also said, answering a question from the public, about what he would do differently if he could go back to February 2022- Putin said he should've launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier. This dialogue is not yet covered in the official transcript.

Conclusions

It seems that everyone is trying to home in on what a possible ceasefire or peace agreement to end Russia’s war on Ukraine will look like. Except Putin, he just continues showing his best poker face and asserting that everything is fine and that Russia is strengthened, not weaker than before the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. Nobody outside Russia will believe that, so Putin is clearly concealing his hand until Trump is in office.

Germany wants to avoid anything that can look confrontational, while USA is confident it can show Ukraine and EU their places. It looks like EU actually wants to try a harder stance towards Trump, taking more responsibility and increasing spending. Trump is volatile, as always, but despite being coy about having the initiative, he seems to be looking for a deal. Poland and the Baltic/Nordic countries are for that, Italy and France largely supporting. Germany, Hungary and Slovakia are against. It is a late awakening and in the end, EU and Zelensky may be hoping for a few weeks delay to try and improve the situation and expose Putin’s weaknesses better.

We’re lucky that Musk seems more interested in protecting his investments in China than those in Russia. Because in Russia, he has zero money or very little.