Mr. Brexit Appointed New French PM
He made Brexit happen, even if he was against it. Michel Barnier is Mr. Brexit, more than any other, and now Macron has asked him to form a government after the terrible election earlier this summer.
Michel Barnier is the EU Commissioner that made Brexit happen, against all odds. Everybody were really tired of the persistent trouble with doing what nobody had achieved before - sending an EU member country out the front door, at their own wish, but with lots of unpleasant repercussions on both sides. The British were extremely reluctant to negotiate, not to mention decide anything that could be put down on paper and signed. New British governments changed their minds several times, making Brexit a moving target, for both parties over again. Michel Barnier was much criticized and nearly fired a couple of times, but he persevered and did the job.
Especially the Northern Ireland question was difficult to settle. Actually, it was impossible because of the contradiction that all parties, including the USA, had promised Northern Ireland should maintain membership of the EU, while Brexit of course meant they must leave. It was left open, in the end, like many other half-baked parts of the trade and borders agreement. But Brexit got done, and Michel Barnier is the one to thank for it.
It is now almost two months since the flash election that President Emanuel Macron called for in reaction to his party’s dismal performance at the EU elections. The issue here was not so much dissatisfaction with Marcron’s performance via-à-vis European politics in particular, though there were some with the overwhelming immigration problem of course. But just like Germany and many other EU countries, France was hit by the effect of ghost bashing: Punishing EU politicians for failures of their colleagues and parties in the domestic arena. The Germans call it a Denkzettelwahl, meaning an election reminder or even admonition. It means that national politicians are put on notice that something has to be done, otherwise they may face consequences in the next domestic elections.
In France, Macron hoped to root out all the admonition thinking by exposing for the voters, what it is they will get if they continue to further the Le Pen right-wing party’s agenda. It resulted that in the end he won a Pyrrhic victory. A last moment coalition between left and center reduced the anticipated victory for the right, but on the other hand made the country ungovernable. So far, a solution has not been found because there is no majority in reach without including Le Pen.
It is a self-inflicted chaos, so to speak. Very contradictory voices, as the various parties all have claims and do not want to join anything with the left, the right and also some personality clashes.
In France, the president get to appoint a prime minister, which is a hard choice for Macron to make in this situation, but once the choice is announced it is all up to the new prime minister in charge to attempt to form a viable government.
After probing several first and second choices, Macron ended with the solid, boring solution that most likely a majority of the French population hates but can accept because of the non-viability of any of the more politically profiled people.
First of all, Le Pen did not object, She is said to have promised not to turn over the new government in the first few months, at least. That will allow for a budget process.
Does that mean that the stalemate is now over in France? For now, yes. It is likely that Barnier will be able to form a government and get a fiscal law for 2025 proposed. The issue is if he is also able to find approval for this, which will show during the next few months.
There will still be uncertainty until further, until Macron has managed to steer his country through this his partially self-inflicted crisis.
Anyway, the season is not over yet. We need to see the appointment of EU Commissioners, not in place yet at all, except for the chair Ursula von der Leyen. Then the German Länder that have just voted and ended up in a similar ungovernable situation like that in France, except in Germany it is not the federal government. And finally on to the US presidential election.
More about Michel Barnier will follow.
Thank you so much for this post. It is very helpful for us here in our American bubble to understand the political situation in Europe.