Germany: Build a Coalition of Opposites
Parliamentarian democracy is often about building coalition governments. If no party has an absolute majority, coalition-building is the best solution in most cases.
Even if the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is the fastest growing in these times, it is far from big enough to assume a decisive role in governing Germany. Yet. So far. Even the latest attempts from the richest man in the World, Elon Musk, to throw up the set of cards and blast out his support for AfD has done very little to change that. AfD gets most votes in the Eastern states, which are also generally more anti-liberal, anti-USA - and anti-Tesla, if you allow.
The snap elections due 23 February were called because incumbent Chancellor Scholz ran his coalition into a cliff and fired his finance minister for lack of loyalty over the budget plans. Rather unusual for Germany, he asked for early elections. The scheduled elections are every 4 years and were due in September, but Scholz seemed to be so desperate that he felt compelled to ask the President of the Federation to call snap elections.
Sahra Wagenknecht at the BSW party congress. Photo: DW screenshot
The right wing is growing in voter support and Scholz felt that a general election might be the right thing, perhaps the only thing, to stop them. It was reminiscent of the situation in France mid-last year where President Macron called a snap general election because the right wing defeated him in the European elections. Macron just made an effort to win the 2022 presidential election 58.5% to 41.5% over right-wing leader Marine Le Pen, and he is very keen on keeping her still growing party at bay. Though he is on his second term already and not a candidate for the 2027 presidential election.
Macron won the snap elections with extensive help from the left - and then formed a center-right government. The bottom line is that Macron lost his gamble and still has an unstable government and little political credit to build on. This situation, along with Scholz running his coalition aground in Germany, caused a very unfortunate and even close to dangerous situation for EU foreign security politics. With weak mandates for the German and French leaders, the EU does not have enough power to intervene strongly in Ukraine and the relations to USA.
Having seen the hopeless outcome in France, Scholz ignored that and proceeded to call elections in Germany. The projections are not kind to him and his plan for how to make Germany and EU move out of the morass.
Expected movement of the parties
According to the independent aggregator of polls and projection sources wahlen.info, the big winner at these elections are the AfD. They grow to over 20% of the total number of votes which is a record for the right wing since before WWII.
Federal German elections 2025, aggregated from polls
Gains and losses compared to the last regular elections in 2021
Union = Christian Democrats CDU/CSU. Up 5.9 percentage points
AfD = Alternative für Deutschland, right wing. Up 10.7 pp
SPD = Social Democrats. Down 10.4, which is a hard hit for the Chancellor’s party
Grüne = The Greens. Down 0.8, the best result among the coalition government parties
BSW = Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, new center-right. First time in Federal elections
FDP = Freedom/Liberals. Down 7.2 which is crushing for the smallest coalition party
Sonst. = Others. Small, regional parties down 3.3 percentage points.
The governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP is in for a devastating defeat. Nothing seems to have worked for Scholz. He will probably say that everything was against him, the economy, the war in Ukraine, maybe even terrible weather. However, he was disastrous because he simply continued down the road that Angela Merkel had laid out, which was a bad mistake in times that clearly called for changes, urgently. Clear for more or less everybody, but not for Scholz who came across as too passive, low-key and indecisive. Even if he solved the huge problem with closing gas deliveries from Russia and actually delivered, albeit reluctantly, crucial military aid for Ukraine, he still somehow managed to appear unwilling to make a political point of any of it.
A part of Scholz’ constituency in the SPD, mainly from East Germany, remains Russia-friendly and very anti-liberal. Out of fear of pushing the old-timers away, Scholz managed to send them into the open arms of AfD and the newcomer BSW. Much of the rise of the AfD and BSW is actually because of Scholz holding on to the Merkel doctrines such as partnering with Russia, which blew up in the face of Scholz.
New coalition
For the next government, what are the possibilities then? Ruling out a minority government, these are the possible coalitions.
Projections of poll results, from wahlen.info
Christian Democrats (black signature) is inevitable in any coalition (see below about the AfD, though). They can combine with the Social Democrats (red) and form the Grosse Koalition (great coalition) called so because it spans the traditional gap in the middle of German politics. There will be ample resistance to that in both parties because of historical and political differences. One or two smaller parties could be added to the great coalition, to give it a potentially better foundation for stability.
Another option is a coalition of conservative Christian Democrats with leftist Greens. Not impossible, but some might find it slightly opportunistic that the Greens leave one government and joins the opposition to form another government. Some are already arguing that involving the Greens will only dilute the important conservative changes and push even more voters towards AfD and BSW, the new right wing.
Note that none of these projections include AfD. German pollsters and analysts simply rule out that AfD in any possible way could assume responsibility for governing. Unlike in Italy - where the right is leading the government with Giorgia Meloni, and in France - where Le Pen was trusted with becoming blind partner outside the government coalition itself, and tore down the government at the first possibility, in Germany - AfD will not be entrusted with anything. That is at least according to the analysts.
BSW is so new that it has not tried at a Federal election before. The polls above show it is hovering around or just under the minimum 5% barrier limit so one of the most interesting things with the election will be to see if BSW will enter the Bundestag, at all. Should it happen, BSW could also become one of the agents of change in the new parliament, perhaps making the right wing slightly more palatable to mainstream center parties.