Germany: After Scholz Comes Merz
Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz is leading the polls for the next Chancellor of Germany. He will bring a significant right turn compared to the softspoken, indecisive Scholz.
Thermostat politics, is what some observers call it - that voters want a change to a clear opposite position when they are disappointed with the current status of affairs. Germany is traditionally not a place where people turn quickly from one political position to the opposite, Germans prefer the well-considered, moderate transitions from left to right, and vice versa, in due time. Unlike the USA where turning the voter thermostat from blue to red will make a big difference for masses of people, at least in the current takeover situation with the new Trump administration. Germany, when deciding to change the setting of the thermostat, usually goes for a gradual, decisive but sensitive change in either direction.
Friedrich Merz (2017) CDU. Photo: Michael Lucan
Except that the right-wing parties in Germany by now are firing up on a growing sense of failure of the policies of the centrist parties, center-left Social Democrats, and center-right Christian Democrats, balanced by the Liberal FDP party in the middle. The voters are shifting to the right, which clearly showed in the local state elections earlier this year. Right-wing AfD and others managed to dethrone centrist coalitions in the eastern states. Some with the help of BSW of the ex-communist Sahra Wagenknecht, who very quickly has become successful with a mix of traditional left-wing welfare policies with right-wing anti-immigration policies.
After the collapse of Scholz’ coalition government, elections have been called for 23 February, leaving the center-left coalition parties in a hurry to agreeing on their primary candidate for the post as Chancellor for the next coalition government. It will for sure be a coalition government, but if voters turn the thermostat more towards right, the conservative CDU candidate Friedrich Merz will most likely become the next Chancellor.
Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) since 2022 and leader of the opposition in the Bundestag. In September Merz became the conservative Union's designated candidate for Chancellor of Germany for the 2025 federal election.
Merz has by some been described as the ‘German Trump’ which is certainly a stretch, but he does tick some of the boxes. On the confirm side, approximatively, he has:
Rich businessman owning two aircraft (and a pilot certificate)
Wants to make fundamental changes to society
Is self-willed, impatient and not a team player
On the non-conformant side, Merz is:
Not a friend of criminals and dubious persons, and not too friendly towards Russia, unlike Scholz and Merkel and others
An accomplished and experienced politician
Less charismatic and controversial than Trump and company (no clowning)
Other dissimilarities with Trump are that he is brought up as a politician from youth, joining the youth organization of the CDU as a teenager. And he has worked as an employee, earning a living as a lawyer. His political career started in the EU Parliament and in the German Parliament he has been his party’s financial expert on committees and a leading policymaker. He engaged in a two year power struggle with Angela Merkel and decided to leave politics when she prevailed and became Chancellor.
Merz became a multi-millionaire by working in corporate finance, and as a board member of multiple corporations, including among many others, BlackRock Germany.
He is clearly a candidate that the Germans will be able to cope with, but the question actually comes down to policies, of which some are welcome and other are traditionally considered out of bounds for the cautious and uneasy voters.
Although having repeatedly spoken out against collaboration between his party CDP and the right-wing AfD, he seems to be quite pragmatic about tentative collaboration in the eastern states after the defeat in this year’s elections. On immigration, he has consistently been against the Merkel policy of open arms, from the 2015 migrant crisis.
It is noticeable that German politics already have turned the tables on migrant policy, closing borders and conceding to more strict EU immigration policies. So Merz is mostly a follower and not a leader concerning immigration. But for him it is much easier to embrace strict immigration rules than for Scholz, because he has never been seen as a supporter of Merkel’s policies, on the contrary.
On Ukraine, Merz says that as Chancellor, in contrast to Scholz, he will allow the use of heavy missiles (Taurus) against Russia if Putin does not stop attacks on civilian infrastructure. He is for certain conditional dialogues with Russia, but only if other EU countries follow the same line.
In another controversial policy area, Merz in October 2024 successfully urged the German government to resume weapons deliveries to Israel, including spare parts for tanks. His opinion that the "two-state solution remains the right long-term goal for peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians. The Palestinians' recognition of Israel's right to exist is a basic prerequisite on the way there.”
Merz failed his 2020 bid for becoming Chancellor. But time has changed and he seems to have a realistic chance of winning this time. Merz himself has rounded off at the edges a little, but he pretty much remains the same as in 2020, as described in an analysis in politico at the time, talking first about his strife with Merkel:
A combative old white man who speaks of gays and pedophiles in the same breath, dismisses gender debates as a waste of time and who can’t stand Angela Merkel could hardly be more out of step with the zeitgeist.
Through it all, he remained a darling of the CDU’s right wing, which never warmed to Merkel. Many conservatives accuse her of violating the party’s core principles by taking it too far to the left on issues such as migration and social policy. They argue that Merkel’s policies opened the flank to the right of the CDU, allowing for the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany, which has become the country’s largest opposition party.
That’s in large measure due to Merz, who, channeling his inner Trump, has hinted that the establishment was conspiring to undermine his candidacy.
Merz’s nature leads him to be seen as the maverick outsider willing to speak uncomfortable truths to the party and the country. At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, people at large preferred the empathic leadership of Merkel, but as cracks in the effectiveness of her handling of vaccines and closedowns started to emerge, she lost credit. At the time, Merz caused a stir by asserting “it is none of the government’s business” whom he or other Germans celebrate Christmas with. Some saw that as irresponsible, others perhaps now find it is better to say things more directly than Merkel did.
Concluding on the analysis from before the last elections:
Yet after 20 years of Merkel’s plodding consensus-driven style, many in the CDU long for Merz’s forceful can-do approach. The only question is whether Germany is prepared to live with the consequences.
The main problem then was not so much Merz’ sometimes very Trump-like statements with little concern for political correctness, but rather a concern about his ability to conform to the slow, negotiated style of German politics at the time. Perhaps now, Germany is ripe for a change in style as well as in substance. At least, in the rest of Europe there definitely seems to be an appetite for Germany to become more decisive and willing to lead. As Merz himself has pointed out, for the traditional parties, this may be the only chance for them to stand up to the increasing support for extremist parties.