France: Macron Preparing a Surprise

Macron has vowed to reveal who will become the next prime minister within a deadline of 48 hours that expires tonight 12 December.

It’s busy times for the French president. He has promised to appoint a new prime minister ‘in 48 hours’ which means before the end of today 12 December. But he also has an appointment with an important European colleague today, among other things.

Things are happening all at once and it is mildly interesting to see how Macron can handle all these balls un in the air at the same time.

Concorde actually flew as presidential transport once, but not any more. Photo

Today, Macron is going to Warsaw to brief the incoming EU Council president Donald Tusk about what resulted from the Saturday encounter at the opening of the restored Notre Dame cathedral. The short but decisive talk he had with Trump and Zelensky on on the sidelines.

Trump got around to two other documented encounters at that event. On the front row for the formal inauguration, Trump sat close to the smiling US first lady, as can be seen on social media. Very soon thereafter, a promotion for Trump merch fragrance ran with the suggestion that the smell makes everyone like you. Legal commentators soon pointed out that Trump can now be sued for millions because of improper use of Jill Biden in his ad.

Outcome number two on that same bench row was Trump attempting to solicit a friendly greeting from ex-premier Michel Barnier, just resigned. Barnier just lowered his eyebrows; not the greeting Trump has expected. Anyway, Macron has to find a replacement for Barnier. He is strongly advised by opinion makers in France to find someone that can last more than 3 months.

"The President is preparing a surprise": how Emmanuel Macron is refining the choice of his Prime Minister - Article by the French public service channel Radio France franceinfo.

The die seemed to be cast on Tuesday, after the meeting at the Élysée between Emmanuel Macron and the parties prepared not to censure the next head of government. François Bayrou was at the top of the pile, but the wind has turned. The Bernard Cazeneuve option is gaining weight.

The countdown has begun: a Prime Minister will be appointed on Thursday, December 12 in the evening. At least, that is the goal that Emmanuel Macron himself set for himself on Tuesday during the round table with the parties prepared at least not to censure the next head of government. However, it is clearly taking a little longer than expected...

Before

Michel Barnier was a surprise appointment for prime minister, the politician most known internationally for his role as EU chief negotiator in Brexit. He has moved between different right-wing parties, latest Les Republicains. He is not from the Renaissance ‘RE’ technocrat party collaboration of President Macron.

But the left and extreme left went out of their way to basically save Macron from a humiliating defeat by the extreme right-wing parties. So the left coalition was outraged to find that Barnier was asked to form a center-right government that even needed votes of the extreme right to form a majority in parliament. It was an interesting ‘vote left, turn right’ situation.

After three months, on 5 December, Barnier’s government fell on a proposed budget that his right-wing support could not accept. Parts of the law was then carried through on emergency statutes, but the government had fallen.

Challenges of the day

Yesterday, François Bayrou seemed to be the big favorite. Bayrou is of the centrist MoDem party and a supporter of Macron. The problem is still that the left wing coalition wants a much more left-leaning government, and although Bayrou is centrist, he is mostly center-right. The left feel they are entitled to form a government, after joining into the loosely associated group that defeated Le Pen and her right-wing coalition in this summer’s snap elections. The problem is they are too diverse and could hardly agree on a common candidate for the premiership this summer, giving Macron an additional good reason to appoint Barnier.

Bayrou supported Emmanuel Macron's first race for the presidency. He seems to always have the President's ear, and he did poorly to hide the fact that he believed he was Macron’s choice this time over. Perhaps a little too much. Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure spoke out against the candidacy of Bayrou, who he said would embody a "continuity", whereas he wanted to see a prime minister from the left.

Surprise or chaos

Other names are circulating: Sébastien Lecornu (RE party of Macron), Xavier Bertrand (Les Républicains) and others. "The president is preparing a surprise", says a Macronist. And so it is the Bernard Cazeneuve option that is on the rise, because he is the only one considered able to bring in socialists to the government without offending the centrists.

Bernard Cazeneuve, former socialist, formed his own party last year. Called La Convention, it describes itself as center-left in its manifesto, thus:

Launched at the initiative of Bernard Cazeneuve in March 2023, our movement aims to bring together women and men who wish to build a social-democratic, republican, humanist and ecological project for our country.

Coming from civil society, members or not of a political party, think tanks or associations, we have, throughout France, created spaces for debate to offer a credible and ambitious left-wing alternative.

He might be the solution for the conundrum, because he was actually considered by the left coalition this summer. As a social democrat type of politician he could potentially unite politicians from center-left across to center-right, thus solving the conundrum.

On his return from Warsaw, we may get an announcement from Emmanuel Macron who "loves to surprise", according to his friends... who do not rule out seeing him appoint someone whose name has never circulated. Or even wait and see if chaos emerges and then he can cut through the mist, when exhaustion sets in.