EU: We Stay With Ukraine if USA Retreats

The EU special representative Kaja Kallas stated on Friday that EU is determined to remain in a leadership role, should USA decide to leave the collaboration of Ukraine supporting countries.

While many other partner’s economical and military support is currently up in the air, EU has started the year with actual ‘money on the desk’. The European Commission released the first €3 billion tranche today of money that was decided last year by the G7. It is a loan, characterized as exceptional Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) which will be repaid by sequestering the interest of Russian assets that are currently held in the EU.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost access to bank accounts and other assets in EU and most likely will not get them back. Once the war is finished, as part of the agreement, it will be decided what will happen to the funds. Most likely, they will be used for reparations to and rebuilding of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the assets earn interest and upwards valuation, and these earnings are now released for the benefit of Ukraine. Technically as a loan but not expected repaid any time soon, if ever.

This first payment is EU's contribution to the G7 loans initiative, that aims to provide approximately 45 billion euro in financial support to Ukraine. The other G7-countries are not yet ready to release the payments, but the EU also holds the largest part of frozen Russian assets. It can be used to helping Ukraine confront Russia's war of aggression, maintain macroeconomic and fiscal stability, rebuild vital infrastructure, including energy systems, as well as invest in defense infrastructure.

It is expected that a total of 18.1 billion euro will be disbursed in 2025 under this instrument. Ukraine will be able to directly support its military expenses with this loan.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "Almost 3 years into Russia's war of aggression, Ukraine can keep counting on its friends and partners. Today we deliver 3 billion euros to Ukraine as the first payment of the EU part of the G7 loan. We give Ukraine the financial power to continue fighting for its freedom – and prevail. Europe has provided nearly 134 billion euros of support to Ukraine so far. And more will come. Just like the brave Ukrainian resistance, our support will be steadfast."

Every day for over a thousand days, Russia has been destroying the homes of Ukrainian people and deliberately targeting critical infrastructure including energy supplies. Today Ukraine will receive three billion euro from our G7 loan to support its economy and carry out vital repairs across the country. This will also allow Ukraine to free up money for defence. The loan will be repaid with the proceeds from frozen Russian assets in the EU. Russia started this war so Russia must pay the price of it.

Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission. Press release of the EU.

Kaja Kallas: EU is ready to take the lead, should USA leave Ukraine

Kaja Kallas participated on Thursday in the Defense Contact Group meeting at the US base in Ramstein, Germany.

Kaja Kallas with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, at Ramstein. Photo: Instagram/Kaja Kallas

Today, I participated in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein, Germany – a forum dedicated to rallying international support for Ukraine. Continued coordination with partners, including NAYO, is crucial. I was glad to exchange views with Mark Rutte on how we can further support Ukraine. My message is simple: Ukraine can hold off Russia’s invasion with our support. Russia is far from invincible. The EU has already provided over 130 billion euro to Ukraine. We’ve also imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia. And by February, we will have trained 75,000 Ukrainian troops, making us the largest training provider. However you look at it, Ukraine will only be as strong at the negotiation table as it is on the battlefield. Instagram

According to the AFP agency, quoted by Politico, Kaja Kallas made a poignant statement before the meeting. She directly said that EU will take the lead on supporting Ukraine if the United States was no longer willing. “I’m really sure that all the other members, and hopefully also the United States, are ready to continue with the support to Ukraine. The European Union is also ready to take over this leadership if the United States is not willing to, we shouldn't really speculate about future U.S. support.”

Kaja Kallas concluded that is not in the interest of America that Russia will be the strongest force in the world.

We should add to this analysis, that USA has to consider both Russia and China as contenders to World power. If USA find that it is time to divert its attention away from Russia because of strengthening of China’s power in the Asian-Pacific context, EU is determined to find ways to fill the gap with regional and local forces, since EU does not itself have military force. But it is the objective interest of USA that Russia is pacified and China is punished for its support for Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Italian weapons deal negotiations

Yesterday, the Kyiv Independent announced what some of the new funds will be used for.

Ukraine has a very specific request for what some of the frozen money should be used for: Italian-made air defense systems and ammunition. According to Ukrainska Pravda and The Kyiv Independent, Italian and Ukrainian officials have discussed at a meeting whether the purchase is feasible. In December, the Italian government chose to extend its support for Ukraine until 2025. Italy and France have previously jointly delivered an advanced air defense system to Ukraine.

Zelensky was in Rome on Thursday, in a rapid excursion from the Ramstein meeting in Germany. Originally, the plan was to have a last meeting with Joe Biden who seems to have planned a last visit to the Pope, last visit as President. However, Biden called off the plan because of the situation in California. Zelensky came anyway and had talks to both Prime Minister Meloni and President Mattarella.

It is generally assumed that arms procurement was an important subject of the discussion, though nothing has been officially announced about it.

"We are interested, among other things, in ammunition of various calibers and air defense systems," Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anatolii Klochko said after talks with Italian defense officials. Italy delivered a highly advanced SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine in cooperation with France in 2023. The second system was said to have been in late September 2024.