EU Reviewing US Arms Contracts

EU is determined to focus on European defense manufacturers for its massive rearmament project. However, there are ongoing projects such as the F-35 fighter jet acquisition that cannot be stopped.

Poland

Poland is in the process of massive rearming, with a defense spending of 4% of GDP in 2024 and expected to increase to 5% in 2025. The number of professional soldiers is to increase to up to 500,000. In addition, the entire population is to be prepared for emergency situations and on a voluntary basis receive military training.

For the first time since joining NATO in 1999, many Poles fear being left alone in the event of a Russian attack. Seeing how half-heartedly Germany and many other EU member countries support Ukraine in the current situation, they feel obliged to seek alternatives. PM Donald Tusk is pursuing the EU and NATO solution, but it still is very much dependent on Germany and how the new government under Friedrich Merz makes progress on rearming the country. And how well the EU collaboration works, including collaboration with France.

For Poland, USA under Trump no longer seems to be reliable . Long-term planned arms contracts with US weapons manufacturers may have to be canceled and replaced with European ones.

Off to further horizons. Illustration: Lockheed Martin.

Air defense

Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, several errant missiles have struck Poland. One of them killed two Polish farmers in a barn in eastern Poland, while another flew halfway across Poland to Bydgoszcz (Bromberg) in northwestern Poland, landing in a forest there. Very close to the crash site is not only the home of Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, but also a major NATO military base with several training centers and workshops for F-15 fighter jets.

EU has a priority project on air defense, intended to be a showcase of the new intensified collaboration.

Germany already has some Patriot ground-to-air missile systems in function and some on order. Like so much else, a decision on cancelling Patriot is pending investigation by the new government. However, there are European alternatives available. The Norwegian startttt is considered a full replacement for Patriot with the exception that it has a shorter range, but far from a decisive difference.

Starlink

When Elon Musk claimed on his platform X: ‘If I were to shut down the Starlink satellite system, the entire Ukrainian front would collapse,’ many Poles took this as a threat. Foreign Minister Sikorski pointed out to Musk, as well as the international public, in sharp terms that Poland pays SpaceX 50 million dollars annually for Ukrainian access to Starlink. ‘But if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider, we'll have to look for alternatives.’ Musk reacted angrily: ‘Shut up, little man! You're only paying a small portion of the costs. There's no replacement for Starlink.’ Musk later relented and somehow needed to assure ‘No matter how much I disagree with Ukraine's policy, Starlink will never shut down its terminals’.

Ongoing review of technology, solutions and feasibility of European products

In an earlier post on this newsletter, you can read that a French satellite company already has terminals in Ukraine and is ready to replace Starlink.

Starlink Alternatives - Already in Ukraine

Of those, the air force capabilities are of great importance, because of the decisive impact on the battlefield, and because of the huge costs involved in these projects.

Fighter jets

The largest projects are currently about acquisition of US F-35 fighter jets, which French PM Emmanuel Macron points out has to stop, sooner rather than later. Macron to Politico: ‘Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale.’ Macron says the French fighter jet alternative, Dassault Rafale, is more than adequate and matches the F-35 on all points. Further, it has the advantage of being under full European control. The other alternatives are the SAAB JAS 39 Gripen (Swedish) and Eurofighter Typhoon (UK, Germany, Italy and Spain).

Belgium

Belgium ordered 34 F-35As to replace its aging F-16 fleet.

Despite rumors that Belgium is going to cancel the contract, the new nationalist government that was sworn in last month has indicated that Belgium is set to move forward with its commitment to the F-35 program. It will also be difficult to move out of the program because deliveries have already started and infrastructure is being built on the ground.

Brussels Times writes that despite significant setbacks, the delivery is going to continue, with the delays and setbacks taken into consideration.

The initial purchase agreement aims to acquire 34 F-35 aircraft, designed by Lockheed Martin, at an estimated total cost of around €3.6 billion. In 2018, then-Minister of Economy Kris Peeters had promised that Belgium’s purchase of the jets would pay for itself in contracts awarded for their maintenance to Belgian aerospace companies.

Ultimately, this gamble did not pay off, with companies pulling in just €700 million by mid-2022, not even 20% of the sticker price. An agreement signed last year promises that the F-35 programme will generate €66 million in economic returns per year, or €2.7 billion over a 40-year-period, still far the cost invested into the fighter jets.

The other concerns are rising costs, flight incidents and complaints about lack of reliability. In August 2023, Belgium refused receipt of two F-35 jets due to technical inadequacies in the fighter jet’s software and heads-up displays.

Denmark

Denmark ordered 27 F-35As, with deliveries underway.

A step ahead of Belgium, Denmark has some jets in operational service and have taken delivery of about half of the ordered units. The chairman of the defense committee in the Folketing Parliament, Rasmus Jarlov, regrets the original decision because of what has happened since. But it is not possible to back out at this late stage, he says. In and interview with Jyllands-Posten, he says future purchases of US military equipment must be made with much more caution:

“It is necessary that we make a decision to, as far as possible, not buy more weapons that make us vulnerable to blackmail from the United States,” he says, adding that there may be exceptions when it comes to types of weapons that we cannot get elsewhere.

But isn’t it important, after all, to maintain a friendly tone with the United States?

“Canada has done nothing to deserve what is happening. The United States is now trying to destroy them economically in order to remove their right to exist. Greenland has done nothing to deserve the threats that are coming against them. That's where we are. It's so unacceptable. There's no indication that if you treat the US politely, they'll behave properly.

Too late to exit the program without paying massive fines.

Finland

Finland contracted for 64 F-35As to replace its F/A-18 Hornets, with deliveries commencing in 2025.

Public media YLE reports that the F-35 deal will go forward and that Finland has received guarantees from the US that they are confident it will have operational capabilities as expected under all circumstances.

Finnish Air Force Commander, Major General Timo Herranen, has sought to address concerns about the reliability of F-35 fighter jets. The worries were raised in response to the US' warming diplomatic relations with Russia.

Herranen stated in a review on the Air Force's website that the aircraft does not contain a so-called "kill switch" that would allow the United States to disable the jets by halting software updates.

"We have reliably operated American equipment for thirty years, despite similar claims being made during the F/A-18 Hornet procurement about the possibility of capability being disabled," Herranen said.

He expressed confidence that the United States and Lockheed Martin would ensure the operational capability of Finland’s F-35 fleet in all circumstances, given the decades-long partnership. He also noted that all modern weapons systems, including those used in Europe, contain software components primarily originating from the United States.

"Such dependencies exist in all Western fighter jets, including every aircraft considered during our procurement assesments," he stated.

Herranen argued that, given the current security environment, discussions should focus more on increasing European defence production rather than concerns about Western interdependence in military technology.

Questions about the reliability of American weapon systems have emerged in Europe following US President Donald Trump's decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine and seek closer ties with Russia and President Vladimir Putin.

Finland is not expected to change their decision to order F-35.

Germany

Germany ordered 35 F-35As, with discussions about the possibility of an additional 10 aircraft.

​In Germany, F-35 is planned to replace some older Panavia Tornado jets, even if there are European/German alternatives available. The worker’s union at Airbus Defence is strongly arguing that the order must be cancelled and replaced with German produced aircraft. Since the order is not too close to delivery, it is possible. However, the order is bundled with other much needed other capabilities, according to flightglobal.com:

In addition to its F-35 order, Berlin’s current procurement activities include purchases from the USA of 60 Boeing CH-47F Chinook transport helicopters and eight P-8A maritime patrol aircraft. Deliveries of the rotorcraft are due to begin in October 2027, while a first German navy P-8A was recently flown for the first time in the USA.

The German air force also will receive three Pegasus signals intelligence jets: while based on the Canadian-built Bombardier Global 6000, these are being modified by Bombardier Defense in Wichita, Kansas, in partnership with Germany’s Hensoldt.

Germany’s still acting Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Friday to the public service channel ARD that Germany sticks to the purchase of F-35 fighter jets:

Defense Minister Pistorius is sticking with the purchase of the state-of-the-art aircraft – and contradicts doubters who question the reliability of the Trump administration. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius intends to stick with the purchase of the F-35 stealth jets from the USA. "The USA is and will remain an important ally for us – also for the equipment of the Bundeswehr," he said in response to doubts about continued arms cooperation with the USA under President Donald Trump. Europe and the USA "want and must gain clout," the SPD politician told the German Press Agency. "This applies not only to the F-35, but also to our other projects." The F-35 project in particular demonstrates how closely intertwined and coordinated industries are, the minister said. "It's a multinational project. Significant parts of the F-35 are manufactured outside the US," Pistorius said. In Germany, Rheinmetall, for example, is involved in production, and eight nations were involved in the development. "14 NATO nations and a total of 20 nations currently or in the future use the F-35," he said. The user community benefits both parties.

The CDU spokesman - related to the incoming government - CDU foreign policy spokesman Roderich Kiesewetter had questioned the Bundeswehr's purchase of 35 US F-35 fighter jets. ‘The F-35 is a system that is essentially controlled by the US,’ he told the Tagesspiegel.

Chairman of the general works council of Airbus Defense, Thomas Pretzl, demanded that the F-35 fighter jets already ordered in the USA be canceled. Instead, Germany should assume a leading role in military aircraft construction. But the Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, warned against canceling the order for the US fighter jets. ‘I think it's even dangerous,’ he told Deutschlandfunk. They don't have a comparable fighter aircraft, and the Americans could then classify Germany as unreliable. They should talk to the US ‘and not stir up trouble somewhere,’ he said.

Based on the expected positions of parties and in particular, the industry and the workers’ unions, which are very important in German politics, it is highly unlikely that any F-35 order would be cancelled.

Italy

Italy utilizes both F-35A and F-35B variants, with a total of 90 aircraft planned.

Particular to Italy, the jets are locally assembled. Italy hosts one of the three final assembly lines for F-35 at Cameri, near Milan. The assembly line has mostly produced the F-35A and F-35B variants for Italy itself and for Holland. After a recent US government decision, other European customers can request to have their F-35s assembled in Italy. While the Cameri facility does not have the capacity to produce the same numbers as the assembly line at Lockheed Martin in Fort Worth, Texas, the European customers get the same product at the same price from either shop.

Given this background, it is not likely that Italy should want to cancel any orders. On the contrary, they may want to enhance the chances of other nations ordering their jets for assembly at the Italian plant.

Holland

Holland ordered 46 F-35As, with deliveries in progress.

Last year, the Dutch announced plans to buy another six of the jets and officially retired their fleet of F-16s. Some of the F-16s have already been sent to Ukraine, in a joint program with Denmark and Belgium (the latter on hold because of delays in F-35 deliveries).

Dutch Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans is quoted in Defense News:

“It’s in the interest of all of us to make sure that the F-35 program remains operational, that it remains as successful as it is right now, and I don’t see any signs of the United States backtracking,” Brekelmans said in a press briefing at the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum on Tuesday, in response to a question citing concerns the U.S. could remotely ground aircraft operated by allies.

“So, I don’t think we should speculate on this,” he added.

Brekelmans pointed out that the F-35 program relies on parts from partner countries, echoing an argument made by Belgian Minister of Defense Theo Francken.

Francken dismissed comments about a hypothetical F-35 ‘kill switch’ as ‘scaremongering stories,’ also saying that if the U.S. would stop supplying parts, that would ‘immediately completely shut down’ the business of the entire U.S. defense industry in Europe.

The U.S. is the ‘biggest partner, and we need to have them on board in order to have a successful F-35 program, but other countries also play a key role,’ Brekelmans said, noting the stealth jet has some ‘essential parts that only we produce.’

‘In the end, it is good also for the strength of the United States and for NATO and all of us that we have the most modern air force in the world,’ the Dutch minister said. ‘That means we should all be fully committed. And so far, that’s what I also see from the partners in the F-35 program.’

Lockheed Martin said in a statement last week that the company delivers ‘all system infrastructure and data required for all F-35 customers to sustain the aircraft.’

The F-35 capabilities against Russian air defenses cannot currently be replaced or replicated with other platforms, Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for air power at the U.K.’s Royal United Services Institute, wrote in a social media post on Monday.

“On the F-35 fears, I get it — there is real dependency,” Bronk said. He added, however, that if countries rely on the U.S. for targeting capacity — beyond line-of-sight communications, ISR and munitions to fight a war — then dependency on the U.S. for mission data files and software “isn’t your main problem.”

Norway

Norway committed to 52 F-35As, with deliveries ongoing.

Norway is not a EU country​ but closely associated with trade agreements. It is not feasible to disengage from the F-35 contract as Norway has operated the fighter jet since 2015 and is close to full delivery of the stock. Norway is also one of the few really good examples of countries that have been able to pick up some good business in the wake of the F-35 contract. Lockheed Martin sells the plane locked up with the Joint Strike Missile, developed and produced by Kongsberg Industries in Norway together with Raytheon in the US. The JSM is an airborne version of Kongsberg’s successful Naval Strike Missile, which is sold to, among others, the Danish Navy.

Poland

Poland ordered 32 F-35As, with deliveries expected between 2024 and 2030.

Training has commenced and while the Polish opposition PIS party is picking on the subject, it is not indicated by the government that they intend to change anything about the order.

Portugal

Portugal has decided not to order F-35 based on their memorandum of understanding with the US manufacturer.

Spain

Spain has not ordered F-35.

Greece: Signed a deal to purchase 20 F-35As, with expected delivery in late 2027 to early 2028. An option for an additional 20 aircraft is also included.

Czech Republic: Signed a memorandum of understanding for the purchase of 24 F-35A fighters, with a contract for logistic support signed in September 2024.

Romania: Approved the purchase of 32 F-35A jets, with deliveries expected to begin after 2030.

Canada

Canada has announced that it will conduct a thorough review of the F-35 purchase that it announced earlier. The Canadian government committed in January 2023 to spending 19 billion CAD for the purchase of 88 F-35s from the US. The new PM Carney, who linked the review to Trump’s ongoing trade war against Canada, said at this point the country has only committed to purchasing the first 16 F-35s. He noted that he has had discussions with French and British government officials about whether they could provide an alternative to the F-35 and whether that aircraft could be built in Canada. In addition, he pointed out that defense relations were a key part of his talks with Macron and Starmer during his visit to France and UK on 17 March.

‘Given the geopolitical environment, given the fact that there are options, given the need for value for money, given the possibility of having substantial production of alternative aircraft in Canada — as opposed to sending, as we have been, on average, 80 cents of every dollar to the United States — it’s prudent and in the interest of Canada to review those options,’ Carney said at a news conference.

Other ordering countries outside the EU

Australia: Committed to acquiring 100 F-35A aircraft, with deliveries ongoing.

Canada: Signed a contract for 88 F-35As, with initial deliveries expected in 2026. ​

Israel: Operates the F-35I, a customized variant of the F-35A, with plans to acquire up to 50 aircraft.

Japan: Plans to acquire 147 F-35s, including both F-35A and F-35B variants. ​

Singapore: Ordered 12 F-35Bs, with the first four to be delivered in 2026 and the remaining eight in 2028. Additionally, eight F-35As have been ordered, expected to arrive by 2030.

South Korea: Plans to acquire 60 F-35As, with deliveries underway. ​

Switzerland: Ordered 36 F-35As to replace its current fleet, with deliveries scheduled from 2027 to 2030.

UK: Operating the F-35B variant, with plans for a total of 138 aircraft.

Turning the supertanker

As this overview shows, large defense contracts are like supertankers, very slow to react on the rudder. Because of the obvious need to think in long terms, because of the expense and the time needed for specifying, ordering, producing, training and introducing into operational services, it takes similarly lang time to change course once a contract is entered into. The penalties for abandoning the contract are also high in most cases.

In this case, there are two further, strategic considerations:

1. USA is different now, but some kind of normality might occur at a later time. Everything is in a thousand pieces on the floor right now, but the emerging regime change may be temporary. Better be prepared for even more change and also for reversal of some of the changes.

2. At least a run-in period of 10 years is required for such a fundamental change to take full effect. Keeping some responsible relationship with the US is necessary in the short and medium term.

Next post in this series: Air defense systems