Austrian Elections go Right-Right

Is Europe ready for a new Jörg Haider? The answer is no, and the Austrians will have to find a way around running into a déjà vu

Now it’s Austria’s turn to have their 2024 elections. We have seen a swarm of elections this year. Many countries have conducted their regular elections this year, and some have even opted for a surprise election, like France. All have seen a right turn of the electorate, with the notable exception of Britain, that arguably was ahead of the pack and had their right turn with Boris Johnson and others, yielding terrible consequences like Brexit and subsequent threat of economic collapse.

Austria is no different regarding the right turn. The extreme right FPÖ Freedom Party won the election yesterday with a wide margin and became the largest party in the Austrian Parliament. However, it cannot form a government, because it does not have an absolute majority and has to form a coalition. None of the other parties are willing to form a coalition with FPÖ, as it stands now, not even the other large right-wing party ÖVP that has ruled the last period under the leadership of Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who was sworn in as late as December 2021 following the resignations of Sebastian Kurz of the same party.

Jörg Haider wearing lederhosen at a meeting of his party BZÖ (2006). Photo by Harel at he.wikipedia CC BY-SA 2.5

The Austrian prosecutor's office believes that an inner circle around Sebastian Kurz had spent over a million government euros to buy ads in a tabloid newspaper, which in turn has written positive stories about the chancellor. In addition, the prosecutor's office also believes that the newspaper helped produce false opinion polls that made Kurz appear more popular than he really is. The accusations triggered a no-confidence vote in parliament that went against Kurz, wo resigned and later announced he would leave politics altogether.

Even with the new chancellor it came close to the same situation as in France and in the German federation states Thuringia and Sachsen, where the right won seats but cannot rule because of lack of appeal to potential alliance partners. The same kind of outcome was feared in the European Parliament, but the right-wing parties did not quite get there, and the incumbent center-right and center-left parties continues their dominance in the Parliament and, not least, in the Commission.

The Austrian elections resulted in another tied situation, where the incumbent conservative and green coalition cannot possibly continue. There are two ways out, and it will be hard to negotiate a durable solution with either of them. The conservative People’s Party could invite in the social democrats and if the greens are still interested, the three of them would hold a comfortable majority. But it would require some flexibility from all three, since the social democrats differ somewhat on welfare, immigration and economy. The People’s Party and social democrats could in theory form a government together, but that would be the thinnest possible majority of one seat, which would be high-risk and not sustainable.

Estimate from after the polling stations closed on Sunday. Austrian radio and TV

These are the top 6 rating parties, of which only the 5 made it through the hurdle of the 4% threshold. The ‘Bier’ party is, yes the beer party and gathered more support than expected, because of its appeal to ‘protest’ voters that wanted to distance themselves from what they see as the old ways of the existing parties.

The incumbent coalition of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and The Greens (Grüne) have lost significantly, ÖVP lost 11.2 percentage points, Grüne lost 5.6 percentage points, effectively removing any chance that the two can form a majority coalition without the help other parties. The other major party and possible coalition partner is the Social Democrats (SPÖ) that remained at the same position, losing only 0.1 percentage points. To form a viable government, the three could get together or include the NEOS liberal party that is very critical to ÖVP.

Chancellor Nehammer of the ÖVP repeatedly excluded joining a government led by Kickl of the Freedom Party, describing him as a “security risk” for the country, but didn't rule out a coalition with the Freedom Party without its leader. Which is rather improbable now that that party is the largest.

Nobody wants to make up with the right wing FPÖ Freedom Party, then. It is too toxic in the current political landscape, and has been made impossible by previous debates. The current leader of FPÖ, Herbert Kickl, is a former interior minister and campaign strategist for the party and has probably the best rhetoric to gather the Austrian right-wing voters. Some of his rhetoric is reminiscent of Hitler’s from nearly a hundred years ago, even quite unashamedly so. He has said that he will become the ‘Volkskansler’, people’s chancellor, which is exactly the title that Hitler took in the 1930’s when he went from elected politician to self-appointed ruler of Germany and the annexed Austria.

Herbert Kickl is a figure that evokes strong emotions. A third of Austrians state that they want a strong leader and Kickl seems to fit that role. He has polarized society like no politician since the time of former FPÖ leader Jörg Haider who upset most of Europe at his time. Jörg Haider died in a traffic accident 2008.

Looking at the example of Jörg Haider, EU and the rest of the world will most likely respond strongly if another charismatic right-winger like Herbert Kickl is engaged in some form of Austrian government. That is behind the reluctance from Chancellor Nehammer to consider engaging with the rival, similar but less extreme, party. It would put Austria once again in a challenging position with even less sympathy from the rest of the world as last time Austria tried the extreme way.

The traditional FPÖ voters see Kickl as a leader figure who will save the country from devastation, but his opponents see the opposite. Kickl's great role model is Viktor Orbán and his illiberal democracy. He explicitly wants to transform Austria according to the Hungarian model.

The far right has benefited from frustration over high inflation, war and migration. In its election program the Freedom Party calls for “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” for achieving a more “homogeneous” nation and building ‘Fortress Austria’.

The Freedom Party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, is highly critical of Western military aid to Ukraine and wants more powers back from EU to Austria.

Outcome

The most likely outcome of the Austrian elections is a compromise government, including the People’s Party and the Social Democrats. It will be feeble and could lead to yet another new coalition government next year, or even new elections.